Bitcoin’s climb back above $82,000 has led to bullish conviction among investors. However, an interesting technical analysis suggests that the rally may still be part of a corrective structure, not the start of a clean impulsive breakout.
That difference is important, because the analysis shows that Bitcoin is now approaching a resistance band that could decide whether the rebound continues or turns into another trap for late buyers.
Bitcoin Heads Into Major Resistance Zone
The BTC price climbed back above $80,000 this week, with the move supported by strong inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, crypto analyst Tara is not convinced this bullish move tells the full story.
Related Reading
Tara’s outlook is built around Bitcoin’s reaction to the macro 0.382 retracement level. According to the analyst, the Bitcoin price broke above this level without first establishing stronger support below it. That has created a setup where the price action can still push higher, but the move may be vulnerable because the foundation below the rally is not as strong as bulls would want.
Therefore, Bitcoin’s failure to establish solid support after breaking above a key macro Fibonacci level has left the asset exposed, now pressing into a major resistance zone spanning between $85,200 and $93,000.
The short-term structure has clearly improved from the early February lows around $60,000, but Tara’s chart points to several overhead levels that now matter. The first major red resistance line is around $85,288, which corresponds with the 0.382 retracement on the projected structure. Above that, the 0.5 retracement level near $93,099 becomes the bigger test.
Based on the analyst’s count, the current rally should be a counter Wave B move within a larger corrective ABC trend. The analyst described Wave B as one of the most deceptive phases of a market cycle because it can make traders believe the correction is already over. However, the range between $85,200 and $93,000 represents the region where the Wave B rally could start to lose strength.
What Comes Next? The Crash Risk
Now that the Bitcoin price is approaching resistance, the outlook is what to expect based on what could happen if it is rejected at that zone. The next phase can turn lower and punish buyers who entered too late.
Related Reading
The chart sketches this exact possibility with two projected downward paths from the upper resistance region. One begins around $85,000, and the other begins closer to the $93,000 level. Both paths suggest that a rejection from the resistance band could bring the Bitcoin price below $60,000.
A sustained break above $85,200 would bring the $93,000 region into action. A clean move above $93,000 would then weaken the bearish corrective setup. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,742, down by 2% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
