September 26, 2025 Economic and Housing Market Update

September 26, 2025

Overview:

Reports and articles referenced:

Housing data for download:

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

• I’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. As we near the final quarter of the calendar year, I’ll discuss what members had to say following the September Fed meeting, what we’ve seen in mortgage rates, plus what could be ahead and which housing markets would stand to benefit most from lower rates. I’ll review this week’s housing trends along with new home sales and existing home sales data. Finally, even as we approach the best time of the year to buy a home doing so can still feel out of reach. I’ll discuss how this could be influencing shopper interest in fixer-upper homes and highlight the markets where buyers can expect a decent return on their investment if they’re willing to tackle a project.
• First, after the Fed cut its federal funds rate last week, we’ve heard from several Fed members. Their speeches reinforce a key takeaway from the meeting’s summary of economic projections: that there is a wide variety of perspectives at the Fed. A sizable minority–7 of the 19 participants–expect no further rate cuts this year, and we’ve seen futures markets lower the implied odds of rate cuts in both October and December.
• As I anticipated last week, we’ve seen a bit of a bounce back in mortgage rates which rose 4 basis points to 6.3 percent. This is a modest increase but, combined with a 10-year yield that has edged even higher, it could create a sense of urgency for home shoppers in the market.
• Even as rates tick up, they remained in the low 6s for only the third week so far in 2025. This will likely nudge home sales higher in the months ahead, but the improvement won’t happen overnight nor to the same degree in all areas. To see where sales could react most to rates, we found markets where large shares of homeowners have a mortgage. Metros in the South and West topped the list, with my hometown–the nation’s capital and surrounding markets–coming in at number 1.
• Zooming out to the national picture, this week’s housing data show that last week’s bright spot has faded. The number of newly listed homes actually fell behind year-ago level, helping to slow active listings growth and increase time on market even as prices were flat.
• Looking back a bit, in August, builders saw new home sales surge as relatively abundant inventories plus a greater share of move-in ready new homes helped shoppers take advantage of builder promotions. At the same time, existing home sales ebbed month to month but notched a second consecutive annual gain as typical sales prices rose. 
• Finally, last week we released the 2025 Best Time to Buy report which identifies October 12 – 18–still a few weeks away–as the best week of the year to look for a home nationwide. But in a handful of markets the time is now and for even more areas the trends align next week! 
• Finally, in addition to tapping into the seasonal sweet spot, those seeking a more affordable way to buy a home might consider rolling up their sleeves. In fact, the Realtor.com fixer-upper report found that interest in project homes has climbed. The report also identifies top fixer-upper markets for the availability of ‘bring your imagination’ homes and the potential return on sweat equity.
• You can find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download, at realtor.com/research.  You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics.

Subscribe to our mailing list to receive monthly updates and notifications on the latest data and research.